US Without Coal? Good Luck

First, let’s establish the stark reality of coal’s contribution to American Society during crises over the last decade:

2014 Polar Vortex, brought extreme cold across the US resulting in record winter peak electric demands. Coal provided the majority of electricity but, even more importantly, coal power increased 92% YOY to meet the load. Oil increased 12%, Wind 9% and Nuclear 7%. Natural gas (NG) generation decreased 6% YOY and Hydro declined 15%. Solar was irrelevant. NG was diverted to space heating needs and prices in the Northeast exceeded $100/ MMBtu. New England Utilities resorted to burning jet fuel.

2019 “Cold Event” a severe cold wave caused by an Arctic Polar Vortex hit the East and Midwest leading to fatalities. In the PJM region (65 million people) coal power led all fuels at 37% of electricity. All renewables combined contributed only 7% of electricity. In the MISO region (45 million people), coal provided 50 % of electricity and operated at 73 % of installed capacity.

2021- Winter Storm Uri impacted much of the US. Extreme cold forced the MISO grid, which stretches across 15 states and Manitoba, to make emergency load reduction. Coal-based generation surged 36 percent and met almost 50% of demand. Solar power was virtually non-existent, and MISO reported that “output from wind generation was low throughout the duration of the event”. NG prices increased from less than $3 per MMBTU to as much as $700.

2024- Winter storm, multiple cold weather fronts moved across the country, setting low-temperature records. Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) noted that across the three storms, coal-fired power plants showed the most significant increase in utilization rates: “Wind generation faced challenges… while solar generation was entirely or almost entirely absent.” Further, EVA concluded: “Higher shares of solar facilities and fewer dispatchable resources likely would have resulted in widespread power outages “.

2025 Polar Vortex –Demand across the East, Midwest, and South reached 537 GW in January – the highest ever recorded and approximately 150 GW above average. Per EVA, coal-fired generation “played a vital role” as capacity factors reached 70%. At peak demand, wind and solar were only able to generate 3% and .0.2% of the electricity to meet the load. NG prices spiked to $30/MMBtu compared to coal’s $2.50. EVA estimated coal saved customers up to $1.4 billion.

Now, put these data in the context of the US Energy Information Administration’s 2025 Annual Energy Outlook published just this past April.

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